Songpi: The war in Ukraine has become the deadliest conflict for a major power since World War II, with combined military casualties now exceeding 2 million (20 lakhs), according to the July 2, 2026 study by US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. The report said Russia’s grinding invasion has caused more than 2 million (20 lakhs) killed, wounded or missing between the two armies since February 2022, up from 1.8 million (18 lakhs) estimated in January, with Moscow’s forces bearing the brunt of losses while advancing remarkably slowly on the battlefield despite massive manpower advantage.
Russian Army Losses: 1.4 Million (14 Lakhs) Casualties
For Russia, CSIS now estimates a total of 1.4 million (14 lakhs) casualties including killed, wounded and missing. This is a sharp increase from the January 2026 version which had put the figure at 1.2 million (12 lakhs) casualties through December 2025. The study noted that no major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers in any war since World War II, a toll that reflects four years of attritional fighting in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia where small territorial gains have cost tens of thousands of lives.
Russian Death Toll: 400,000 To 450,000 (4 To 4.5 Lakhs) Dead
Myanmar Meitei Kathe Body MIDA Rejects Links to Manipur, Slams Junta-Allied Meitei Militants
Within that total, Moscow’s forces account for the heaviest fatalities. CSIS estimates between 400,000 to 450,000 (4 lakhs to 4.5 lakhs) Russian soldiers have been killed since the full-scale invasion. The earlier January assessment had put Russian deaths at up to 325,000 (3.25 lakhs). CSIS said Russian fatalities in Ukraine are now more than four times greater than all US fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, underscoring the unprecedented scale of losses for a modern army.
Ukraine Army Losses: Over 6 Lakh Casualties
Ukrainian forces have also suffered major losses. The July update estimates Ukrainian forces have suffered between 525,000 to 625,000 (5.25 lakhs to 6.25 lakhs) casualties. The earlier assessment covering February 2022 to December 2025 had estimated between 500,000 to 600,000 (5 lakhs to 6 lakhs) casualties. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties has risen to around 8 to 1 in the first half of 2026, the study said, as Russia pursues costly frontal assaults and Ukraine shifts to defensive operations with drone-heavy warfare.
Ukraine Death Toll: 1.25 To 1.5 Lakh Dead
Within the Ukrainian total, CSIS estimates between 125,000 to 150,000 (1.25 lakhs to 1.5 lakhs) soldiers killed. The previous estimate was 100,000 to 140,000 (1 lakh to 1.4 lakhs) killed. Ukraine cites security reasons for not publishing regular updates. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February 2025 his country had lost nearly 46,000 troops, a figure analysts consider an underestimate, and later said 55,000 (0.55 lakh) soldiers have died in early 2026, while tens of thousands more are listed as missing or prisoners.
Why Official Numbers Differ So Much
Neither government releases timely data. Russia has not published official death tolls since September 2022, when then Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said 5,937 soldiers had been killed. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed third-party figures as not reliable, saying only the Defense Ministry is authorized to provide information. Western intelligence assessments in early 2026 put Russian casualties between 1.1 million to 1.3 million (11 lakhs to 13 lakhs) and Russian deaths between 200,000 to 250,000 (2 to 2.5 lakhs), still far below CSIS estimates.
Independent Count: 163,000 (1.63 Lakhs) Russian Dead Identified
Independent verification offers a more conservative baseline. The BBC Russian Service and investigative outlet Mediazona, which rely on publicly available data such as obituaries and death notices, have identified more than 163,000 (1.63 lakhs) Russian soldiers killed in four years of war, while acknowledging the actual number is likely higher because many deaths go unreported. Their confirmed-by-name database alone lists 50,000-60,000 (0.5-0.6 lakh), proving minimum losses already exceed Soviet losses in Afghanistan by tenfold.
Civilian Deaths In Ukraine Cross 15,000 Verified
The war has also taken a heavy toll on civilians, with UN monitors recording more civilian deaths in Ukraine in 2025 than in any other year except 2022. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said more than 2,500 civilians were killed and over 12,000 wounded in 2025 alone, noting the UN has verified almost 15,000 civilian deaths since 2022, but that the total is likely considerably higher due to lack of access to occupied areas.
Real Civilian Toll In Both Countries Estimated Higher
Third-party compilations give a higher estimate. A four-year summary cited civilian fatalities at 15,954 in Ukraine and 7,254 in Russia as of January 2026. It stressed figures are difficult to verify and data from think tanks can diverge significantly from official figures. UN officials say verified numbers do not include still-unaccounted deaths in occupied cities like Mariupol, where thousands are believed buried under rubble and where heavy artillery flattened residential blocks in 2022.
Civilian Deaths Inside Russia Rising
Inside Russia, the civilian toll has been far lower than in Ukraine but not negligible and is rising fast. There is no consolidated national database, but regional authorities in Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk have reported recurring shelling, drone strikes and temporary evacuations. Independent Russian media indicate civilian deaths inside Russia number in the hundreds since 2022, with incidents increasing sharply as Ukraine expanded long-range drone campaigns targeting fuel depots and military airfields in 2025-2026.
Equipment Losses Add To Human Cost
Military equipment losses are also extensive and reflect the war’s intensity. Russia has lost 24,099 vehicles and pieces of equipment, including 13,887 tanks and armored vehicles, 361 aircraft and 29 naval vessels. Ukraine has lost 11,380, including 5,596 tanks and armored vehicles, 194 aircraft and 42 naval vessels, according to open-source tracking cited in the January 2026 assessments, showing material costs now exceed 200 billion dollars for both sides combined.
No End In Sight As War Enters Fifth Year
Combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties may be as high as 1.8 million (18 lakhs) and could reach 2 million (20 lakhs) by spring 2026, CSIS had warned in January, a threshold it now says was crossed by July. With no comprehensive ceasefire in place, indirect talks in Istanbul stalled, and both sides mobilizing further with expanded conscription drives, analysts expect casualties to continue rising, making it Europe’s deadliest conflict since 1945 and reshaping both countries’ demographics for a generation.
